Steven J Steer, William J Nuttall, Geoffrey T Parks and Leonardo VN Gonçalves
Predicting the Cost of Unplanned Shutdowns of Power Stations: An Accelerator-Driven Subcritical Reactor Case Study
Also published in:
Electric Power Systems Research, Volume 81, 2011, pages 1662-1671.
Abstract: The growing penetration of intermittent power generation technologies is increasing the importance of efficient electricity balancing mechanisms. This paper presents a model for analysing the financial cost to an electricity supplier when a power generator unexpectedly instananeously shuts down, in the context of the UK National Grid. The simulation probabilistically selects historical market data and includes analysis on the impact on the system buy price of historical unplanned generator shutdowns. A case study is presented for one revolutionary nuclear power station design concept, the Accelerator-Driven Subcritical Reactor (ADSR). The reliability of ADSRs is a key issue facing their future development. The model is used to identify when the economic cost of improving reliability exceeds the cost of unplanned shutdowns. The results are presented in a form that allows the reader to scale the cost of accelerator system failures for any capacity factor and coefficient of reliability, for a range of discount rates and electricity prices.
Keywords: unplanned shutdown, cost, intermittent, accelerator-driven subcritical reactor