Tag Archives: K.Keats

EPRG 0631

Karsten Neuhoff, Federico Ferrario, Michael Grubb, Etienne Gabel, Kim Keats

Emission projections 2008-2012 versus NAPs II

EPRG 0631 Non-Technical Summary | PDF

Also published in:

  • Neuhoff, K  (2006), “Emission projections 2008-2012 versus NAPs II”, Climate Policy, Volume: 6, Issue: 4, Pages: 395-410

Abstract: We compare the national allocation plans, proposed and submitted by EU member states as of October 2006, with our estimations for CO2 emissions by the installations covered by these NAPs. The collective allocations proposed under Phase II NAPs exceed the historic trend of emissions extrapolated forward. Using our projections we find, depending on uncertainty in fuel prices, economic growth rates, performance of the non-power sector and CDM/JI availability, a 15% chance of a ‘dead market’ with emissions below cap even at zero prices. With an expected inflow of committed CDM/JI credits of 100 MtCO2/year allowance supply will exceed demand in 50% of cases without any carbon price, and in 80% of our 20€/tCO2 scenarios. The proposed Phase II NAPs would result in low prices and only small volumes of CDM/JI would enter the EU ETS. CDM/JI would almost exclusively be public sector funded, placing the cost of Kyoto compliance entirely upon government

Keywords: Emission trading, Allocation Plan, Europe, Projections

EPRG 0618

Karsten Neuhoff, Kim Keats, Misato Sato Allocation, Incentives and Distortions: The Impact of EU ETS Emissions Allowance Allocations to the Electricity Sector EPRG 0618 Non-Technical Summary | PDF Also published in: Neuhoff, K. “Allocation, Incentives and Distortions: The Impact of EU ETS Emissions Allowance Allocations to the Electricity Sector”, Climate Policy Vol 6 Issue 1… Continue Reading

EPRG 0603

Karsten Neuhoff, Andreas Ehrenmann, Lucy Butler, Jim Cust, Harriet Hoexter, Kim Keats, Adam Kreczko, Graham Sinden Space and Time: Wind in an Investment Planning Model EPRG 0603 Non-Technical Summary | PDF Abstract: Investment planning models inform investment decisions and government policies. Current models do not capture the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, restricting the… Continue Reading

EPRG 0702

Karsten Neuhoff, Jim Cust, Kim Keats Implications of intermittency and transmission constraints for renewables deployment EPRG 0702 Non-Technical Summary | PDF Abstract: We represent hourly, regional wind data and transmission constraints in an investment planning model calibrated to the UK and test sensitivities of least cost expansions to fuel and technology prices. Thus we can… Continue Reading