Many argue that climate-related risks will only materialise many decades from now, but using AI to construct climate smart sovereign credit ratings we show climate-driven downgrades within this decade.
The FT press coverage can be viewed here
The Bloomberg press coverage can be viewed here
The Reuters press coverage can be viewed here
The original article can be viewed here
An earlier version was published as an EPRG Working Paper and can be viewed here
Dr Kamiar Mohaddes talked to the podcast of Economic Times about the economic effects of El Niño for India, the rest of the Asia Pacific, the United States and the global economy regarding economic growth and inflation. This is based on his work with various colleagues (including from the International Monetary Fund), such as The Growth Effects… Continue Reading
Tiago Cavalcanti, Kamiar Mohaddes, Hongyu Nian, and Haitao Yin Air Pollution and Firm-Level Human Capital, Knowledge and Innovation Abstract | Non-Technical Summary | Text Continue Reading
Ramit Debnath, Ronita Bardhan, Darshil U. Shah, Kamiar Mohaddes, Michael H. Ramage, R. Michael Alvarez, and Benjamin K. Sovacool co-authored a report “Social media enables people-centric climate action in the hard-to-decarbonise building sector” for Nature Scientific Reports that was published on 17 November 2022. You can read the report here Continue Reading
R. Debnath, R. Bardhan, DU Shah, K. Mohaddes, MH Ramage, MR Alvarez, and B. Sovacool published an article in University Research News – University of Cambridge on 17 November 2022. You can read the article here Continue Reading
PROGRAMME Monday, 27 June 2022 Welcome and AnnouncementsChristopher R. Knittel (MIT)Michael Pollitt (EPRG)Yong Tae Yoon (SNU) KEYNOTE SPEECHPresident & CEO Seung-Il Cheong (KEPCO) KEYNOTE SPEECHCEO & Chairman Dong Hee Jung (KPX) NET-ZERO SCENARIOS OF MAJOR COUNTRIESChaired by David Reiner (EPRG) Kamiar Mohaddes (EPRG) (virtually)Sergey Paltsev (MIT)Jiyong Eom (KAIST) RESTRUCTURING AND REGULATING THE POWER INDUSTRY FOR… Continue Reading
Dr Kamiar Mohaddes and his work on “Climate Change and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States” is covered in JBS news in article “Cold and wet hits US states harder in some sectors”, on 16 March 2022 You can read the article here Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes, Ryan Ng, M. Hashem Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi, and Jui-Chung Yang Climate Change and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States Abstract | Non-Technical Summary | Text Continue Reading
Ramit Debnath, Ronita Bardhan, Kamiar Mohaddes, Darshil U. Shah, Michael H. Ramage, R. Michael Alvarez People-centric Emission Reduction in Buildings: A Data-driven and Network Topology-based Investigation Abstract | Non-Technical Summary | Text Continue Reading
Matthew Agarwala, Matt Burke, Patrycja Klusak, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ulrich Volz and Dimitri Zenghelis Climate Change and Fiscal Sustainability: Risks and Opportunities National Institute Economic Review, volume 258, pages 28-46, 30 December 2021 Continue Reading
Matthew E. Kahn, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ryan N.C. Ng, M. Hashem Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi, Jui-Chung Yang Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis Energy Economics, volume 104, article # 105624, pages 1-13, December 2021 This article is based on EPRG WP 1925 Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes, Matthew Agarwala, Matt Burke and Patrycja Klusak wrote an article “Climate finance: it’ll be cheaper in the long run if poorer countries receive it as a matter of urgency” that was published in The Conversation on 5 November 2021. In the article, the authors argue that: Climate change will shrink the economies of… Continue Reading
Zeina Hasna, Henry-James Hatton and Kamiar Mohaddes wrote a report “Greenovate for a better environment and economy” for KPMG International in November 2021. Drawing on patent data from 92 patent-application authorities (24 million observations) and the last three decades for 43 OECD and BRICS countries (roughly 24 million observations), the report shows that green patent… Continue Reading
K. Mohaddes, C. Couharde, O. Damette, and R. Generoso The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter Annals of Economics and Statistics, volume 140, pages 83–126, December 2020 Continue Reading
K. Mohaddes, R. Debnath, R. Bardhan, S. Darby, M. Sunikka-Blank, A. C. Villaça Coelho, and A. Isa Words Against Injustices: A Deep Narrative Analysis of Energy Cultures in Poverty of Abuja, Mumbai and Rio de Janeiro Energy Research & Social Science, volume 72, pages 1-17, February 2021 Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes participated in a panel discussion “A Global Economic System in Turmoil: What is at Stake for the MENA region?“, on 17 May 2021 that was part of the plenary session of the ERF 27th Annual Conference. Together with Mahmoud Mohieldin (Executive Director, International Monetary Fund), Hala Elsaid (Minister of Planning and Economic Development,… Continue Reading
Patrycja Klusak, Matthew Agarwala, Matt Burke, Moritz Kraemer, and Kamiar Mohaddes Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness Abstract | Non-Technical Summary | Text Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes wrote a new blog “How do Businesses Deal with Uncertainty Effectively?” on 13 April 2021. In this blog he discusses different types of uncertainty businesses face and how climate change will be the next global extreme uncertainty entrepreneurs and businesses around the world will have to face. The blog can be found here Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes took part in the panel discussion “Why has it taken so long to take climate change seriously?” with Rob Doubleday (CSaP), Steve Evans (Institute for Manufacturing), Fred Pearce (freelance author), and Zoë Svendsen (Faculty of English). It was held on 28 March 2021 and was part of Cambridge Festival. You can view the… Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes wrote a blog “Rising temperatures, melting ratings” on VoxEU on 25 March 2021 which covers the effect of climate change on sovereign creditworthiness. The blog has a reference to EPRG Working Paper 1925 You can read the blog here Continue Reading
K. Mohaddes and Rhys J. Williams The Adaptive Investment Effect: Evidence from Chinese Provinces Economics Letters, volume 193, article #109332, August 2020 Continue Reading
K. Mohaddes, A. Chudik, M.H. Pesaran Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR Advances in Econometrics, volume 41: Essays in Honour of Cheng Hsiao, pages 143–189, April 2020 Continue Reading
K. Mohaddes, H. Jibril and K. Chaudhuri Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: Does the source of the oil shock matter? Energy Policy, volume 137, pages 1-15, February 2020 Continue Reading
Ramit Debnath, Ronita Bardhan, Sarah Darby, Kamiar Mohaddes, Minna Sunikka-Blank, Ana Cristina Villaça Coelho, Abdulrasheed Isa A deep-narrative analysis of energy cultures in slum rehabilitation housing of Abuja, Mumbai and Rio de Janeiro for just policy design Abstract | Non-Technical Summary | Text Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes’ paper on the microeconomics effects of climate change (published as EPRG WP 1925) was mentioned in the article “Our Planet, Our Choice” by Andrea Gawrylewski in Scientific American, August 2020 Special Edition. To read the article, please click here Continue Reading
Ramit Debnath, Sarah Darby, Ronita Bardhan, Kamiar Mohaddes, Minna Sunikka-Blank Grounded reality meets machine learning: A deep-narrative analysis framework for energy policy research Energy Research & Social Science, November 2020, volume 69 Also published as EPRG WP#2019 Continue Reading
Ramit Debnath, Sarah Darby, Ronita Bardhan, Kamiar Mohaddes, Minna Sunikka-Blank Grounded reality meets machine learning: A deep-narrative analysis framework for energy policy research Abstract | Non-Technical Summary | Text Also published in Energy Research and Social Science, Vol. 69, November 2020 | Text Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes took part in the panel on the Economics of the Dual Shock in MENA (COVID-19 and the collapse in oil prices) on 12 May 2020 where he presented “The Volatility Curse: A Long-Term Perspective“. The disccussion was part of the ERF-World Bank Webinar series. The complete webinar can be found here with Kamiar’s… Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes was interviewed by Newsweek for the article “Iran Faces Fourth Crisis in Oil Crash Amid U.S. Sanctions, Coronavirus and Protests” by Tom O’Connor on 9 March 2020. The full article can be viewed here Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy Empirical Economics, November 2019, volume 57, issue 5, pages 1515–1546 Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes and his paper on the microeconomics effects of climate change (published as EPRG WP 1925) were mentioned in the article “Warming Will Cost Rich and Poor Countries Alike” by Andrea Thompson in Scientific American, November 2019 Issue. To read the article, please click here Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes and his paper “Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis” was quoted in several international news outlets, including Bloomberg, Fox News, Washington Post, Market Watch, Hindustan Times, Reuters, Business Green, CNBC, The Straits Times, EcoWatch, IFLScience, Think Progress, New York Post, RTE and the Financial Times. The paper was also highlighted by the University of Cambridge Research News Dr. Mohaddes… Continue Reading
Matthew E. Kahn, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ryan N.C. Ng, M. Hashem Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi, and Jui-Chung Yang Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis Abstract | Non-Technical Summary | PDF The study was mentioned in Fox News on 16 November 2020 Also published in Energy Economics, volume 104, December 2021 Continue Reading
The book “Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies”, edited by Kamiar Mohaddes (EPRG Associate Researcher), Jeffrey B. Nugent (University of Southern California) and Hoda Selim (International Monetary Fund), has been published by Oxford University Press in May 2019. In addition to editing the book, Kamiar Mohaddes also co-authored the following chapters: Chapter 1.… Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes gave a presentation ” Oil Revenue Volatility, Sanctions and Mismanagement: Lessons from Iran” at the International Iranian Economic Association’s (IIEA) Sixth International Conference on the Iranian Economy in Naples, Italy, hosted by the University of Naples “L’Orientale” on 16-17 May, 2019 | PDF Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes gave a presentation “Volatility, Macroeconomic Policy and Institutions in Resource-Rich Economies” at the Workshop on Macroeconomic Stability and Diversification in Oil-based Economies organized by King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), in Riyadh on 16 April 2019 | PDF Continue Reading
Uchechukwu Jarrett, Kamiar Mohaddes and Hamid Mohtadi Oil price volatility, financial institutions and economic growth Energy Policy, Volume 126, March 2019, Pages 131-144 Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes gave a presentation “Volatility and Macroeconomic Policy in the Middle East & North Africa Region” at the Symposium on “The World Economic Outlook: Implications for Kuwait and the MENA Region” hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Middle East Center for Economics and Finance (CEF) and the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFESD)… Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes was quoted in the article “Oil Price Fluctuations: Can Egypt’s Economy Stand the Strain?” by Mahinaz El-Baz in Egypt Oil & Gas newspaper on 11 July 2018. The full text of the article can be viewed here Dr. Mohaddes published EPRG WP#1604 on the subject. Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes, EPRG Associate Researcher, gave a presentation “Oil Price Volatility, Climate Change Uncertainty, and Macroeconomic Policy” at ERF Conference “The New Normal in the Global Economy: Challenges and Prospects for MENA”, in Cairo, Egypt, on 9 July 2018 | PDF You can also view the presentation here Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes was quoted in the article “This is ‘Winning’? Ending the Iran Deal is Alienating European Allies & Strengthening the Yuan” by Eleanor Beevor, on Albawaba News, on 14 May 2018. The interview covers his views on the likely impact on Iran’s oil exports following President Trump’s withdraw from JCPOA and unilateral sanctions by the… Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi’s paper “Can Sovereign Wealth Funds Mitigate the Negative Impact of Volatility?” is published in Economic Research Forum Policy Brief #31 in March 2018. The full text can be found here Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes was quoted in the article “Reneging on the Nuclear Deal Will Isolate America, Empower China, and Distance Europe” by Eleanor Beevor, on Albawaba News, on 28 February 2018. The article also makes a reference of Kamiar’s work “Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: A Counterfactual Analysis” that was written together with… Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes and Hashem Pesaran “Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: A counterfactual analysis” Energy Economics, Volume 59, September 2016, Pages 382-399 Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes, EPRG Associate Researcher, gave a presentation “Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?” at the Conference on “Arab Oil Exporters: Coping with a New Global Oil Order”, at the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development on 26-27 November 2017 in Kuwait | PDF Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes, Paul Cashin and Mehdi Raissi “Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño” Journal of International Economics, Volume 106, May 2017, Pages 37-54 Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes, EPRG Associate Researcher, gave a presentation “Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?” at the Workshop on New Perspectives on Political Economy of the Middle East that took place at the University of Oxford on 27-28 October 2017 | PDF Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi Do sovereign wealth funds dampen the negative effects of commodity price volatility? Journal of Commodity Markets, Volume 8, December 2017, Pages 18-27 Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi published an article “Implications of the current low oil prices for MENA countries” on Economic Research Forum website, on 9 October 2017 ‘Oil importers in the region should not overestimate the positive impact of the decline in oil prices on their economies given considerable uncertainty about the persistence of lower oil… Continue Reading
Kamiar Mohaddes, Tiago Cavalcanti and Mehdi Raissi Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume 30, Issue 6, September/October 2015, Pages 857–873 Continue Reading