Tag Archives: S.Alberth

EPRG 0614

Stephan Alberth, Chris Hope

Policy Implications of Stochastic Learning using a Modified PAGE2002 Model

EPRG 0614 Non-Technical Summary | PDF

Abstract: We consider the importance of Endogenous Technical Change (ETC) on the risk profiles for different abatement strategies using the PAGE2002 model with ETC. Three outcomes from this modelling research have significant impacts on the way we ‘optimise’ the greenhouse gas abatement path. Firstly, it was found that for most standard abatement paths there would be an initial “learning investment” required that would substantially reduce the unit costs of CO2 abatement as compared to a business as usual scenario. Secondly, optimising an abatement program where ETC has been included can lead to an increased risk profile during the time of widespread CO2 abatements due to the costs associated with learning. Finally, the inclusion of ETC leads to a slightly deferred optimised abatement path followed by a drastic abatement program that itself would seem highly impractical. Together, the results draw attention to the possibilities of uncovering uncertainty through proactive abatements.

Keywords: Endogenous Technical Change, Optimal Abatement, Climate Change

EPRG 0613

Stephan Alberth, Chris Hope Developing the PAGE2002 Model with Endogenous Technical Change EPRG 0613 Non-Technical Summary | PDF Abstract: Presented research demonstrates the inclusion of endogenous technical change into the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model of climate change. The ‘experience curve’ or learning-by-doing concept, made popular by the Boston Consulting Group during the 1960′s provides a… Continue Reading

EPRG 0703

Stephan Alberth Forecasting technology costs via the Learning Curve – Myth or Magic? EPRG 0703 Non-Technical Summary | PDF Abstract: To further our understanding of the effectiveness of learning or experience curves to forecast technology costs, a statistical analysis using historical data has been carried out. Three hypotheses have been tested using available data sets… Continue Reading