EPRG 0916

Pierre Noel

A Market Between Us: Reducing the Political Cost of Europe’s Dependence on Russian Gas

EPRG 0916 Non-Technical Summary | PDF

Abstract: The geopolitical implications of Europe’s reliance on Russian gas are a prominent source of concerns among European (and even American) policy makers. We analyse the dynamics of the European Union’s gas supply since 1970 and find that while imports have been growing consistently, dependence on Russia has gone down considerably. The trend towards diversification of supply sharply accelerated after 1990. But gas supply diversity is confined to Western Europe; Eastern Europe’s small gas markets are highly dependent on Russian gas. We conclude that the emergence of a single European gas
market, where national markets would be integrated through pan-European competitive trading, would significantly reduce the energy security and foreign policy implications of the EU-Russia gas relationship.

Keywords: European Union, Natural Gas, Russia, Foreign Policy, Market Integration

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