Tag Archives: A.Mejean

EPRG 0804

Aurélie Méjean, Chris Hope

Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen

EPRG 0804 Non-Technical Summary | PDF

Also published in:

Abstract: High crude oil prices, uncertainties about the consequences of climate change and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels, such as non-conventional oil and biofuels. This paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of non-conventional oil, including the role of learning-by-doing in driving down costs. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of both learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying bitumen which can then be upgraded into synthetic crude oil, a substitute to conventional oil. The results show large uncertainties in the future costs of supplying bitumen from Canadian oil sands deposits, with a 90% confidence interval of $8 to $12 in 2025, and $7 to $15 in 2050 (2005 US$). The influence of each parameter on the supply costs is examined, with the minimum supply cost, the learning rate, and the depletion curve exponent having the largest influence. Over time, the influence of the learning rate on the supply costs decreases, while the influence of the depletion curve exponent increases.

Keywords: Climate change; Non-conventional oil; Exhaustible resources; Technological change; Uncertainty

EPRG 0924

A. Méjean and C. Hope Modelling the costs of energy crops: A case study of U.S. corn and Brazilian sugar cane EPRG 0924 Non-Technical Summary | PDF Also published in: Energy Policy 38 (1) 2010, 547-561. Available at ScienceDirect Abstract: High crude oil prices, uncertainties about the consequences of climate change and the eventual decline… Continue Reading

EPRG 1029

Aurélie Méjean and Chris Hope The Effect of CO2 Pricing on Conventional and Non-Conventional Oil Supply and Demand EPRG 1029 | Non-Technical Summary | PDF Abstract: What would be the effect of CO2 pricing on global oil supply and demand? This paper introduces a model describing the interaction between conventional and non-conventional oil supply in… Continue Reading

EPRG 1005

Aurélie Méjean and Chris Hope Supplying Synthetic Crude Oil from Canadian Oil Sands: A Comparative Study of the Costs and CO2 Emissions of Mining and In-situ Recovery EPRG 1005  | Non-Technical Summary | PDF Abstract: High crude oil prices and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels such as… Continue Reading

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